On Saturday there’s a main MLB slate with seven games and the action on Draft kings starts at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s go through line by line and break down everything you need to know to determine your lineups.
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JUG
breed
Walker Bühler, Los Angeles Dodgers at the Arizonaa Diamond back ($ 11,100) – Bühler worries about allowing too much hard contact (35%) and too many flyballs (39%), but Statcast rates Arizona as one of the toughest parks to hit a home run. Arizona has an 83 wRC +, .292 wOBA, and a .133 ISO against right-handed nodding. At home, they achieved 27 home runs (a fifth less). Buehler held the Diamondbacks on May 17 over seven innings on one hit. He could very well repeat that performance on Saturday evening.
Other option: Patrick Sandoval ($ 8,600)
value
Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers ($ 6,600) – After a difficult start to the season, Gomber changed his approach from pitching to racket weaknesses to his own strengths. His knuckle curve has 35.3% CSW% (calling and swinging strike rate) and a 0.160 xwOBA. At Coors Field, his changeup generates a SwStr% of 19.5%. Since Gomber’s May 12th revelation, he’s had four wins, a 2.88 xFIP and a 25.9% K-Rate in seven starts. Milwaukee has improved against left-handed pitching, but they are still striking at the third highest rate (28.6%).
Other option: Josh Fleming ($ 6,800)
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CATCHER
breed
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers at the Arizonaa Diamond back ($ 4,300) – Best to attack Matt Peacock ($ 5,500) with left-handed clubs, and there are several affordable options, but a Dodgers stack requires a couple of right-handed clubs. Will Smith destroyed right-handed pitch (.403 wOBA, .231 ISO, 162 wRC +) and if he doesn’t harm Peacock then he’s got a great shot against the third worst bullpen (4.70 xFIP) in the Major Leagues.
Other option: Yasmani Grandal ($ 4,500)
value
Max Stassi, Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers ($ 4,200) Houston gave up on Stassi too quickly. He joined the Angels last season and had a .370 wOBA and a .256 ISO. This season he has a .416 WOBA and a .268 ISO. For the tigers Wily Peralta ($ 4,700) – yes, that Wily Peralta will make its first start since 2017. Aside from an excellent 2014 season (3.64 xFIP), Peralta was a below average thrower (4.23 career xFIP). In his six minor league starts, Peralta only completes an average of three innings per outing. It is very likely that the Angels will see many of the fifth worst bullpen (4.59 xFIP) in the Major Leagues.
Other option: Tyler Stephenson ($ 4,000)
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FIRST BASE
breed
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers ($ 5,500) – Home runs win DFS slates. Barrels are the best statistic for predicting who is most likely to hit a home run. Ohtani leads the league in barrel percent (21.5%). DFS players couldn’t ask for a better swing (93.8 mph EV with a starting angle of 16 degrees). The Tigers can’t stop Ohtani and he hit homered twice last night.
Other option: Freddie Freeman ($ 5,800)
value
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds at the San Diego Padres ($ 3,900) – Miguel Diaz ($ 8,100) is the surprise starter in this one. He hasn’t started a game since May 3, and his average outing length is two innings. He has an xFIP of 3.83 and a K-Rate of 27.7%, but his BABIP is 0.191, and against left-handers he has an xFIP of 6.22 as his K-Rate drops to 17.1% while his walking rate increases to 19.5%. Votto is one of the most disciplined bats in baseball, and he will get Diaz to give him a good throw. The internet meme is true – Votto still pops (vs. RHP – .368 wOBA and a .218 ISO). This month Votto has a .443 wOBA and a .250 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Other option: Ji-Man-Choi ($ 4,200)
SECOND BASE
breed
Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers ($ 5,400) – For the past week, McMahon has achieved a .412 WOBA, .450 ISO, and a hard contact rate of 55%. At Coors Field he has a .371 WOBA and a .280 ISO. His matchup against Adrian Houser ($ 7,700) is pretty neutral, but a lot of the hitters on this slate are in unfavorable matchups and not playing in Coors Field.
Other option: Brandon Lowe ($ 4,800)
value
Tommy Edman, St. Louis Cardinals at the Atlanta Braves ($ 4,700) – A cardinals stack is very tempting on this board. While this is not a major offense, it is filled with right-handed people. In general, St. Louis has a below average offense but is in the top 10 against left-handed pitching (107 wRC +). Edman has a .428 wOBA, .275 ISO, 177 wRC +, 37% hard contact rate, and a 9% K rate against left-handed nodding. He hits at the top of the sequence and should get a few cracks Drew Smyly ($ 6,500).
EDITOR’S NOTE: Today’s Cardinals Braves game has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Other option: Danny Mendick ($ 2,400)
THIRD BASE
breed
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals at the Atlanta Braves ($ 5,200) – Drew Smyly ($ 6,500) has done terribly against right-handed people in almost every category that matters (.351 wOBA, .210 ISO, 2.0 HR / 9, 17% K-Rate, 10% BB-Rate, 45% Flyball-Rate, and 5, 46 xFIP). That’s a very long list of bad statistics. Arenado has a .374 wOBA, .271 ISO and a 142 wRC + against left-handed pitching.
Other option: Austin Riley ($ 4,600)
value
Eugenio Suárez, Cincinnati Reds at the San Diego Padres ($ 4,000) – He’s a streaky hitter, and his burglaries lower his price. In 2020 it was freezing cold for half of the short season, then scorching hot. This April was rough, but May was better (.255 ISO). June was another funk, but with funky stats. Suarez has lowered his K-Rate to 23% (his career average is 25%) and 31% of his contacts have been in the other field (his career average is 23.5%). Could this change be the reason for his recent struggles, or an indication of a major breakthrough on the horizon?
Other option: Jeimer Candelario ($ 3,200)
SHORT STOP
breed
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds ($ 6,100) – A player doesn’t get any hotter than Tatis. It’s one thing to have great averages over a week (.534 wOBA, .607 ISO, 247 wRC +) and those are monster numbers, but it’s another level when the counting stats look like this – 5 home runs, 2 doubles, 11 RBIs. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the first name DFS players should click on Saturday.
Other option: Carlos Correa ($ 4,800)
value
Taylor walls, Tampa Bay Rays at the Seattle Marines ($ 2,400) – Fading Tatis Jr. is extremely risky, but there are a lot of differences in baseball and elite players can’t hit a home run every night. Walls wasn’t great, but it’s cheap and there is potential in this matchup. Logan Gilbert ($ 6,900) allows a hard contact rate of 39% versus left-handed clubs and Walls has a hard contact rate of 48% versus right-handed pitching.
Other option: Daniel Robertson ($ 2,800), Gavin Lux ($ 3,700)
OUTSIDE FIELD
breed
Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($ 6,200) – Adam Wainwright ($ 9,300) is not the gas can it should be. While other pitchers return to Earth at falling rates of rotation, control experts like Wainwright could become stars again. That being said, Wainwright lives and dies on the corners. If he stands a little apart, walks lead to danger. If it is a little off, the ball sails over the fence (1.6 HR / 9 vs. RHB). Against right-handed pitching, Acuña has .414 WOBA, .311 ISO and a 164 WRC +. These statistics were compiled in Atlanta that spring. It’s summer and the ball is starting to fly.
Other option: Jesse Winker ($ 5,600)
value
Tyler O’Neill, St. Louis Cardinals at the Atlanta Braves ($ 4,000) – He hasn’t done a homered since June 9th and has had a .262 WOBA and a .087 ISO in the last week. This is the time to shop cheaply. O’Neill draws a preferred matchup in a hitter-friendly park (vs. LHP – .241 ISO, 47% hard contact). More importantly, his advanced stats look great during this mini-dip (53% hard contact with 46% fly-ball rate).
Other option: Zach McKinstry ($ 3,700)
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