Happy Fade the Public Friday! Today we have another loaded betting menu to choose from, highlighted by 15 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Friday’s betting promotions, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be released at 1 p.m. ET. I’ll also be hosting The Lombardi Line with Brady Kannon from noon to 2 p.m. ET. We are accompanied by Pete Fiutak, Wes Reynolds and Tyler Fulghum.
In the meantime, let’s discuss where the money goes for multiple MLB matches on Friday night …
7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (42-44) at Miami Marlins (38-48)
Both NL East opponents made the playoffs last year but have disappointed so far this season. The Braves have just lost two out of three to the humble pirates. Meanwhile, the Marlins have only won three out of four at home against the mighty Dodgers. In today’s series opener, Atlanta passes the ball to veteran Charlie Morton (7-3, 3.91 ERA) and Miami counters with young right-back Zach Thompson (2-2, 2.25 ERA). That line opened with the Braves listed as the -140 street favorites and the Marlins as the +125 home dog. The public is everywhere in Atlanta as the “better” team that puts a short price tag. However, despite this one-sided support, we saw the Braves drop from -140 to -130. This signals a sharp backward movement of the marlins (+ 125 to + 115). Miami has value as a division dog. Historically, dogs have done well in division games as the built-in familiarity levels the playing field. Domestic dogs have lost 209-252 (45.3%) this season but produced + 15 units won due to the Plus Money payouts. Miami is +20 in running difference this season. Atlanta is +16. The marlins are at home 21-19. The Braves are 18-22 on the way.
7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (42-43) against the Boston Red Sox (54-34)
These interleague opponents come from opposing series performances. The Phillies just won three out of four against the Cubs at Wrigley. On the flip side, the Red Sox have just lost two out of three at the Angels. The series start tonight will be started by Phillies right-hander Vince Velasquez (3-3, 4.50 ERA) and Red Sox Tap colleague Garrett Richards (4-5, 4.88 ERA). This line opened with Boston as the -130 home favorite and Philadelphia as the +120 street dog. The crowd rushes to the window to sweat the Red Sox at home. However, that line has shifted away from Boston and towards the Phillies (+ 120 to + 115). Teams that received line movement in Interleague match have reached 90-63 (59%) this season and produced + 13 units. The Phillies also have a high overall score as a dog (11). In the past, high totals have benefited dogs as the higher number of runs expected often leads to more variance and chances of annoyance. We could experience a high score game in this game. The grand total opened at 10.5 and quickly rose to 11. The forecast is for 10 MPH winds blowing into the middle of Fenway in the mid-1970s.
8:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (40-48) at Minnesota Twins (36-50)
The twins won the series opener on Thursday 5: 3 and conceded as -130 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Tigers trot on right Matt Manning (1-2, 7.94 ERA) and the Twins start veteran Kenta Maeda (4-3, 5.03 ERA). That line opened with Minnesota listed as a hefty -180 home favorite and Detroit as the +155 street dog. Sharps are not deterred by the high price and have brought the Twins from -180 to -210. Home favorites -200 or more have lost 76-30 (72%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more after a win lost 64-23 (74%). Teams getting 15 cents or more of steam are 145-90 (62%). The Twins are 4-2 against the Tigers this season. Minnesota will lean on its thugs. The twins hit .245, which is number 9. The Tigers hit .236 which is ranked 18th. Professionals also seem to be leaning on the bottom. The total opened at 9.5 and many books have dropped to 9. Others are at 9.5 with a negative pressure of -115, which signals under-liability. The forecast calls for a low 70’s with winds of 5-10 MPH blowing from the center of the target field.
Remember to check the VSiN betting splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can see who the public is betting on.
