Happy Fade the Public Friday! Today we have another loaded betting menu with 14 MLB games, 2 NBA playoff games and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Thursday’s betting promotions, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be released at 1 p.m. ET. I’ll be joining the Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher to offer a market update.
In the meantime, let’s discuss where the money goes for the two big NBA playoff games tonight.
7:30 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers with the Atlanta Hawks
This is Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Hawks lead the series 3-2 and can secure their ticket for the Conference Finals with a win. After falling 2-1 behind Atlanta, Atlanta has won two games in a row, including a huge 109-106 win from behind in Game 5, which won direct as 7-point street dogs. That game 6 line opened with Philadelphia listed as either a 2.5 point or 3 point street favorite depending on the sportsbook. The public is all over the ’76s trying to keep their season alive, rushing to the window to make the short run. Books that opened at -2.5 were quickly adjusted to -3, while others that opened at -3 stayed at -3. The next step will be incredibly significant. When we see this line dropping 2.5, it indicates action by Hawks + 3 wiseguy. The Hawks have won outright as dogs in the last two games. Atlanta is contrary to a high-stakes game and has some sharp line-freeze vibes too. We have also seen some respectable funds hit this under, which opened at 222.5 and fell to 221.5. The sub is 3-2 of this series. The under is 12-8 (60%) on round two. In the past, Unders in Game 6 and Game 7 was a wise bet due to tired legs and an emphasis on defense as the teams are about to be eliminated. The Hawks are leading 3-2 and are -160 favorites to win the series (62% implied probability). The 76ers are + 135 underdogs.
10:00 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz at the Los Angeles Clippers
This is Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Clippers lead the series 3-2. Los Angeles were down 0-2 and have since won three games in a row, including an impressive 119-111 win in Game 5 that won straight out as the 8.5-point street underdogs. The Jazz have their backs to the wall and they have to win tonight to keep their season alive. This game 6 line opened with the Jazz as a 2-point road favorite. The public says there is no way that jazz can lose to the Clippers without Kawhi again. However, despite one-sided bets on the Jazz, we saw that line drop from 2 to 1.5. This signals a sharp backward movement on the part of the Clippers, with the pros supporting the ardent Paul George and Company as small house dogs. The grand opened at 219.5 and is down slightly to 219. This suggests a heavy burden on the under, with odds makers reluctant to raise the grand total and distribute a better number of brave late series under-backers. Unders in game 6 and 7 have hit around 57% clip over the past decade. If the total is less than 220, this postseason is 13-9 (59%). Leading 3-2, the Clippers are -185 favorites to make it to the conference finals. The Jazz are a + 135 underdog.
Updated NBA title odds at BetMGM
Nets + 275 Suns + 300 Bucks + 425 Jazz + 600 Clippers + 800 76ers + 1100 Hawks + 2000
Remember to check the VSiN betting splits every day for money and ticket numbers so you can see who the public is betting on.
