On June 13, 2016, the Cleveland Cavaliers with the world’s best player, LeBron James, and no significant injuries, +185, were to win Game 5 of the NBA Finals.
The Cavaliers lost 3-1 and the biggest comeback in NBA history was imminent.
At this point the series price was Cavaliers +1100 per ESPN, Warriors -2500. This is after the series opens at Cavs +180. But with 3-1 against the 73 victories of the Warriors, who wanted to become the greatest team in NBA history, the Cavaliers seemed doomed.
What is lost in this series is how it began. In Game 1, Stephen Curry only scored 11 points, Klay Thompson only nine. If I had told you that the Splash Brothers totaled 20 points in Game 1, you would have assumed the Cavaliers won by a healthy margin. Instead, Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala shot together for 22 points, the Cavaliers shot 7-out-21 from 3-point range, and LeBron shot 9-out-21 out of the field.
In the first two finals, the Cavs shot 12-of-44 from a 3-point distance. In game 4, they shot 6 out of 25. In retrospect, this was probably an indication that the Cavaliers were unlucky to shoot and expected a step backwards. However, at the time, it only seemed like the most dominant team in the league was dominant.
In Games 2 and 4, the Warriors scored offensive values north of 115. The Cavs Offensive scored less than 90 points per 100 possessions in these games. It looked like a disproportion. But Game 1 was likely a game the Cavaliers should have won, as Steph Curry was -1 in a game Golden State won at 15.
It just seemed too late.
However, the odds on this series show how quickly everything has changed.
When the Cavaliers won Game 5, the Cavs streak odds went from +1100 (8% implied) to +375 (21%). Everyone remembers that Draymond Green was banned for game 5 for hitting the royal jewels of LeBron James in game 4.
The Cavaliers were 5.5 point dogs in Game 5, +185 on the money line in Oracle. Interestingly, in that game only 36% of the spread tickets were for the Cavaliers, 59% of the moneyline tickets and 68% of the money were for the Cavs. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving together answered with 82 points.
Another element that has been lost over time is that Andrew Bogut was injured in Game 5. Now Bogut had a net score of -21 on the pitch before his injury. But his absence meant Steve Kerr went to Anderson Varejao and Festus Ezeli in Games 6 and 7. The Warriors were outperformed in these games by 0.5 points for each possession of the ball with Ezeli on the court.
The Cavaliers were even favored with 2 points in game 6, -128 on the money line. This time around, the public and the money stayed away as the Cavs only got 36% of the spread tickets and only 38% of the moneyline tickets.
Instead, this was the Cavaliers blowout that you could expect at some point on the series. The Cavaliers kept the mighty Warriors at an offensive rating of 107.5 and Steph Curry was ejected for throwing his mouthpiece.
It is important to note here that the Warriors were beaten by 12 points in Game 6, while Draymond Green was on the ground in Game 6. With all the talk about Green’s absence, Irving and James were unstoppable in Game 5 and Green couldn’t stop them in Game 6.
After game 6 the series price moved to +185 (also the money line in game 7), a chance of 35%.
The Warriors were then at stake with their legacy ahead of Game 7.
Golden State was a 5-point favorite in Game 7. However, while Golden State held 53% of the tickets distributed in Game 7 and 44% of the money, the Cavaliers held 58% of the tickets and 61% of the money in Game 7 money line.
The game, like all games of Game 7, was very stormy as the two teams went several minutes late without scoring a goal. Ultimately, the most dramatic last three minutes in NBA history played out.
The Cavaliers, who went from +280 in the preseason to +475 to start Round 1, to +185 to start the series, and then +1100 after losing Game 4, won Cleveland’s first NBA title and made the biggest comeback in league history.
